Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. “@cjoye Well this RBA info has finally caught up with Alan Kohler I photo’d the tv last yr & kept the dates visible I added words he was saying to the slides Check out the dates! August & October LAST YEAR!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. So presumably brought their first home. I am not a house price bull. 1. 2m are customer assets. Sydney is off 10. This is deflationary. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7%. Visit cjoye's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. “@cjoye @PeteWargent Both this and Labor shared equity policy are attempts to shore up supporter bases/buy votes. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney (+1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Rebounding asset prices would keep inflation - and rates - higher for longer. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. . @cjoye. 76% from 0. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. afr. Replying to. 6%mom) prices led the increase. Sign upLog in. Fantastic lunch event with Chris Joye @cjoye and Coolibah Capital today in Perth. ↑ Joye, Christopher. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3:30 AM · May 20, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Especially as pandemic funding measures end”House prices to get whacked by rates again: If the cash rate does indeed hit 4. It's very unstable at the street level. 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. @cjoye posits #stock are 20% overvalued given the 5% discount rate -> seeing this in earnings #mastercard and #carnival both accelerating earnings, but not rewarded post. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. ly/3pmX9Dk. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia experiences worst house price falls in 42 years, with more to come. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. 5%; 5 capital cities have fallen 3. 4% this time last yr. . Sydney prices have fallen by 11. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. First time I've properly suited up in a long while. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. “@cjoye Sir. 0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes. This will. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. 1:24 AM · Jul 9, 2023 · 10. What’s the result?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Good morning!” In this conversation. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. they all roll over the same. . ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 9:26 PM · Aug 15, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Sign upLog in. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. We await policy details to review our outlook". @cjoye. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. @cjoye, @masters_joanne, @ImpactEconAU & @markgkenny. Well done. 28. 25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. Logically can't happen. 85% to 4. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. Log in. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. com. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2 days ago. Quote Tweet. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. IR here are… Show more . @TheKouk · Jul 8. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. Sydney (+1. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Found. ·. new Tweets. 1KWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. Interesting. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye . “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upSee new Tweets. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. 0% (0. . 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. christopher joye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up“@haluksenlik @cjoye There is obviously significantly more risk and fraud in crypto than in the stock market, but Matt Damon promoted a centralized brokerage that curates assets and thus doesn't expose you to the scams where possible. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. and @Johnkehoe23. . In this conversation. 5%, the…. 1 – weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession, Hassan said. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. 85% to 4. We reap what we sow. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Aussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data from We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sitting on $6. No wonder RBA is slowing down. . Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. Sign upIn this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. . The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. com. 9. Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. 5%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. 0%), Melbourne (-7. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. House prices fell at slightly slower rate in Oct, with 5 city index from @corelogicau losing 1. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09 “RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…” christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle… @cjoye A tiny, single day drop in Aussie house prices evidenced in the CoreLogic daily data---is it pure noise or something more substantive as tighter policy grips? corelogic. 9% vs 56. Interest rates have soared, but commercial property values have barely moved. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. Sign upchristopher joye @cjoye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. Drone operator Christopher Joye posted. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to . Quote Tweet. Likes. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. Stock up 18%. Log inAnother story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of underlying inflation based on a truncated monthly CPI. 3. Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. OAKVILLE, ON — September 1, 2022 — Today marks the start of a new chapter for JOY RADIO (CJYE) as it unveils not only a new look, but a new feel to their. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ALT. “The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead of risky assets ‘living in a parallel universe’ - A recession may be precisely the jolt lackadaisical Millennials require to lift their game. I believe this includes offset accounts. . Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will bring the RBA much closer to global central banks like BoE at 4. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. 5% plus 1% productivity. “RBA may be told to hold press conferences; Barrenjoey talk queried would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. So how does this effect them? I would have thought ppl who regularly buy/sell homes or were looking to cash out for retirement would be more affected?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. @cjoye. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change from entitled millennials who have never experienced high…. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. Log in. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. Conversation. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. 4% pa return. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users The data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. We have unscrambled the letters cjoye (cejoy) to make a list of all the word combinations found in the popular word scramble. christopher joye on Twitter. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. However, the. Replying to . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. “@cjoye Modi had highest voters support among all democratic countries! As Paul Keating repeatedly pointed out, Albo is just a sucker!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. ”“Yep. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. This marks a turning point in your powers. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. Log in. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. Interesting. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. Replying to. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. Melb also up: 67. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Likes. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Found. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. Embarrassingly wrong. @cjoye. . LNP for all its 'hawkishness' over China refused to develop onshore manufacturing for fear of unions. See new Tweets. Like. New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios“@KellyAlspals @cjoye ALD share price hasn't moved much, so either no productivity or wage-rate spiral imo. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2 days ago. . @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. “Morning!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Where did you get 20% from?”RBA governor Phil Lowe said today that for Aussie inflation to hit its 2-3% target, wages can only grow at circa 3. “Good morning!”In this conversation. . christopher joye @cjoye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. . S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. The business indicators measure of wages suggests annual growth in non-farm hourly earnings picked up to 5% in Q1, although this series has grown more strongly than the RBA’s series over the past year. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. "@wmdglasgow Yes, @cjoye is one of our best journalists" (Tweet) – via Twitter. 4. Maybe u can get annoyed that the advertisers allowed this ad? But Matt Damon isn't a financial expert, how is he gonna predict what happens in mkts in 2022, lol. macrobusiness. Fun interview with nabtrade on bond markets. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. . By Huobi announced $18. 7%. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. Immigration is still big in Aus. See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. It. “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. . “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. Job cuts over 18mo. Sign up“@JohnQuiggin @cjoye We're here because Reagan & Thatcher's neoliberal agenda of crushing unions by offshoring manufacturing to China (& continued by Clinton & Blair) . Forecast looks good. Jerome Nugent-Smith. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. In this conversation. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. 1. States need fiscal revolution to avoid debt bomb - our analysis on NSW and Victoria. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2021 Olympic Medalist, Joey Lye, shares stories and insight into some of the mental skills and strategies that prepared her [email protected] million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up“@cjoye People keep in mind the huge upswing the housing market had pre covid. @cjoye was one of the few to go against this IIRC. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersThe data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. . christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App @cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. Prepare for equities and property pain. “Morning!” We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us.